I did so at a time when COVID-19 is killing approximately 3,000 people each week here in the U.S. . . . So, no, contrary to what some people are saying, including President Biden, the pandemic is not over. The problem with this kind of "false declaration," say progressive commentators and medical experts, is that they undermine support for public health measures and bolster right-wing efforts to cut funding for vaccines, tests, and treatments.
Journalist David Axe recently had a piece published in The Daily Beast in which he offers a timely and clear-sighted assessment of the current state of the COVID pandemic. Following is an excerpt.
We have the tools to defeat COVID. But “the reality is nobody is using the tools,” James Lawler, an infectious disease expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, told The Daily Beast.
[The] highly contagious and immune-evasive [COVID subvariant] BQ.1.1 is poised to take advantage of an increasingly vulnerable global population as antibodies from vaccinations and past infection gradually wear off in coming months. The question isn’t whether a fresh wave of infections is coming. It’s exactly when.
. . . One of the most important trends, as the COVID pandemic grinds toward its fourth year, has been the “decoupling” of the infection rate from the death rate. The worst day for COVID cases was Jan. 18, when 3.8 million people caught the virus.
But by then tens of millions of people were vaccinated – and hundreds of millions more had natural antibodies from past infection. At the same time, our arsenal of therapies was expanding. Which explains why the worst day for COVID deaths didn’t coincide with the worst day for infections. Instead, it occurred almost exactly a year earlier: Jan. 20, 2021, when nearly 18,000 people died.
The decoupling trend has endured. The case rate fluctuates wildly, but the death rate – despite a few bumps here and there – mostly keeps inching downward. But if BQ.1.1 drives the next COVID wave, as seems increasingly likely, it’s possible the decoupling could reverse somewhat as treatment options diminish.
Fortunately, the latest mRNA boosters from Moderna and Pfizer are still highly effective against BQ.1.1. There’s a good reason for this. Moderna and Pfizer formulated the new bivalent boosters specifically to provide immunity against BA.5. BQ.1.1 is a form of BA.5, albeit with additional mutations.
Of course, the bivalent boosters only help if you get them. And a deepening sense of complacency in many countries has translated into lower and lower vaccine uptake. “Vaccine uptake collapsed and will keep going down,” Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington Institute for Health, told The Daily Beast.
In the U.S., 80 percent of people have gotten at least one COVID shot; 67 percent completed a full course of vaccine – either two doses of mRNA or a single dose of certain other vaccines. Just 33 percent got the first round of boosters, which became available last fall. And only 10 percent got the bivalent boosters that regulators began rolling out in August.
The numbers aren’t much better in other developed countries – and far worse in developing countries. And that means the world is mostly depending on antibodies from past infection to prevent a catastrophic wave of new cases and deaths.
But natural antibodies eventually fade. “In terms of variables, the major one is the rate at which natural immunity will wane,” Michael said. It’s possible a helpful degree of immunity from past infection endures for a year or more. It’s also possible it disappears after six months or so.
Epidemiologists agree, however, that natural immunity does eventually fade away – and vaccine uptake is too low to compensate for this population-wide loss of antibodies. BQ.1.1 or some other highly-contagious new subvariant is just waiting for our defenses to slip. A new wave of infections could come as early as this winter. Or lingering antibodies could delay it. [Some] computer models predict a surge in cases starting in April.
Sooner might actually be better for humanity. As bad as BQ.1.1 is, it’s not the last word on SARS-CoV-2’s evolution. “It has a lot of potential mutations, still,” Mokdad said of the virus. “The flu virus keeps on mutating and this one is no different.”
New and potentially worse subvariants will follow BQ.1.1. Even if these new subvariants continue to evade antibody therapies, a steady rollout of new boosters would probably protect us. But we as a species just can’t be bothered to get vaccinated.
So we’re counting on catching and surviving COVID, and building up natural antibodies, in order to prevent potentially worse COVID in the future. We’re collectively walking an immunity tightrope.
It’s easy to slip and fall. If you’re not current on your boosters and your antibodies from past infection wear off before you catch COVID again, you could be in big trouble. Especially if you catch BQ.1.1 or an even more evasive subvariant. One that shrugs off some of our best drugs.
That’s the individual prognosis. The outlook for humanity as a whole is equally worrying. Lawler for one said he thinks COVID will be with us pretty much forever. Like the flu. But much worse than the flu.
– David Axe
Excerpted from “This Deadly COVID Twist
Is Like Nothing We’ve Seen Before”
Daily Beast
October 11, 2022
Excerpted from “This Deadly COVID Twist
Is Like Nothing We’ve Seen Before”
Daily Beast
October 11, 2022
Related Off-site Links:
Biden Rebuked for Claiming “Pandemic Is Over” as Hundreds Die of COVID Each Day in U.S. – Kenny Stancil (Common Dreams, September 19, 2022).
What Are BA.2.75 and BQ 1.1? The Two Emerging COVID-19 Subvariants Raising Concern Among Infectious Disease Experts – Olivia Bowden (ABC News, October 8, 2022).
Will There Be a COVID Winter Wave? What Scientists Say – Ewen Callaway (Nature, October 3, 2022).
COVID Inaction Leaves U.S. Facing “Major Storm Without Even an Umbrella in Hand,” Experts Warn – Kenny Stancil (Common Dreams, October 7, 2022).
Analysis Shows That Vaccination Could Have Prevented 3 in 5 U.S. COVID Deaths Since June 2021 – Kenny Stancil (Common Dreams, April 22, 2022).
An Equitable Roadmap for Ending the COVID-19 Pandemic – Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Ines Hassan, Genevie Fernandes, Lois King, Jay Patel and Devi Sridhar (Nature, April 5, 2022).
COVID-19 Vaccines Saved an Estimated 20 Million Lives in One Year – Jim Wappes (CIDRAP News, June 24, 2022).
For Now, Wary U.S. Treads Water With Transformed COVID-19 – Carla J. Johnson (AP News, July 3, 2022).
“Reinfection Wave”: Ed Yong on BA.5 Omicron Variant Spread Amid Mask Mandate Rollbacks and Funding Cuts – Democracy Now (July 14, 2022).
See also the previous Wild Reed posts:
• Dr. Anthony Fauci: Quote of the Day – April 28, 2022
• On the Second Anniversary of the Coronavirus Pandemic, Words of Gratitude and Hope
• Difficult Choices
• A COVID Start to 2022
• Out and About – Autumn 2021
• Renae Gage: Quote of the Day – November 28, 2021
• COVID Observations From a General Surgeon
• Richard LaFortune: Quote of the Day – August 20, 2021
• Something to Lament
• A Pandemic Year
• Out and About – Spring 2020
• Memes of the Times
• The Lancet Weighs-in on the Trump Administration’s “Incoherent” Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic
• Examining the Link Between Destruction of Biodiversity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Sonya Renee Taylor: Quote of the Day – April 18, 2020
• Marianne Williamson: In the Midst of This “Heartbreaking” Pandemic, It’s Okay to Be Heartbroken
• Hope and Beauty in the Midst of the Global Coronavirus Pandemic
• The Calm Before the Storm
• A Prayer in Times of a Pandemic
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